By John W Miller, Chief Economic Analyst, Trade Data Monitor; The global economy avoided a meltdown 2020-2022 due to the Covid-19 pandemic because governments around the world, led by the U.S., printed trillions of dollars for their own citizens, oiling consumer demand and goosing merchandise trade around the world. That steroid is now wearing off, as consumers have spent most of the money they were given, and because their spending fueled inflation, making it harder to buy a

The burgeoning economy of Vietnam is maturing its way into a new phase. The Asian nation of 97.3 million has taken its place among the linchpins of high-tech supply chains, taking in raw materials and churning out mobile phones, tablets, and other computer gear for over a billion middle-class consumers all over the world. In addition, Vietnam is becoming a key part of the alliance of Asian trading powers setting up a counterpoint to the economic poles of the U.S. and European

Latest Trade Data from our partners Trade Data Monitor, John W Miller, Chief Economist: China reduced imports year-on-year in March as the global economy stuttered following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and a resurgence of the Covid-19 pandemic. Overall, China shrank imports by 0.1% to $228.7 billion. Accounting for the nasty price inflation now starting to bite, that represents a meaningful contraction. To boot, analysts had predicted an increase of around 8%. It’s part of a

Overseas money is starting to pull out of Chinese markets after the risk of investing in autocratic countries was starkly highlighted by sharp drops in Russia's currency and securities prices following its invasion of Ukraine. Market data shows foreign investors sold a net 38.4 billion yuan ($6.04 billion) of Chinese stocks and bonds in the January-March period, one of the highest such quarterly figures on record. "Outflows from China on the scale and intensity we are seeing

UN Sees Worsening Prospects for Global Growth In 2022 Due to Ukraine War and Monetary Tightening UNCTAD report estimates global economic growth will decrease to 2.6% from 3.6% for 2022 Developing countries are projected to need US$ 310 billion to meet external public debt service requirements in 2022 UNCTAD warns inflationary pressures do not warrant premature rolling back of pandemic support policies. The UN’s trade and development body has downgraded its global economic gro

UNCTAD’s Global Trade Update published on 17 February shows that in 2021, world trade in goods remained strong and trade in services finally returned to its pre-COVID-19 levels. All major trading economies saw imports and exports rise above pre-pandemic levels in the fourth quarter of 2021, with trade in goods increasing more strongly in the developing world than in developed countries. “Overall, the value of global trade reached a record level of $28.5 trillion in 2021,” the

New UNCTAD estimates show that infrastructure finance is up due to recovery stimulus packages, but greenfield investment activity remains weak across industrial sectors. Global foreign direct investment (FDI) flows showed a strong rebound in 2021, up 77% to an estimated $1.65 trillion, from $929 billion in 2020, surpassing their pre-COVID-19 level, according to UNCTAD’s Investment Trends Monitor published on 19 January. “Recovery of investment flows to developing countries is

For two decades, China’s manufacturing and export sector has seemed to only be going one direction: up. The latest notch: A record trade surplus of $676.4 billion in 2021, up from $524 billion in 2020. Overall for the year, Chinese exports rose 29.9% to $3.4 trillion, the highest total value of goods ever shipped out by a single country, and imports increased 30.1% to $2.7 trillion. For the first time ever, total trade exceeded $6 trillion, according to Trade Data Monitor, th

Global trade hoisted itself back on track in 2021 after a devastating 2020, and will stabilize itself in 2022, according to the World Trade Organization, and an analysis by Trade Data Monitor, the world’s premier source of trade statistics. Fears about supply chains crumbling and consumers failing to get goods shipped to them were unfounded. The $8.6 trillion global logistics industry, it turns out, is robust enough to get goods from any producer to almost any buyer or consum

UNCTAD nowcasts show that trade in services has not yet reached its pre-pandemic level, while merchandise trade is projected to have surpassed it by 15%. UNCTAD’s Handbook of Statistics for 2021 published on 9 December nowcasts a strong increase of 22.4% in the value of global merchandise trade this year compared with 2020. The strong growth will push the value of world trade in goods about 15% higher than before the COVID-19 pandemic hit. Trade in services, however, will sti

As if the foot soldiers of global trade needed more complications this holiday season, many logistics managers and customs brokers are starting to brace for a mini Y2K moment come Jan. 1. That’s when changes will take effect to the official nomenclature for hundreds of product groups used to classify imports and exports. So-called Harmonized System numbers — known as HS codes — exist on more than 5,000 product categories developed by the World Customs Organization, an intergo

Bottlenecks at U.S. ports have raised the alarm about supply chains, but the manufacture and shipping of essential goods from the U.S.’s biggest supplier of goods are operating smoothly, suggesting that supply chain troubles are easing, according to an analysis by Trade Data Monitor, the world’s top source of trade statistics. Exports from China, by far the U.S.’s top supplier of goods for U.S. consumers, increased 27.1% to $300.2 billion in October. Shipments to the U.S. lea

29/10/2021 - OECD data and analysis show that global Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) rebounded in the first half of 2021 to reach USD 870 billion, exceeding pre-pandemic levels by 43% and more than double those of the second half of 2020. In the OECD area, FDI inflows increased to USD 421 billion, more than twice H2 2020 levels, as a result of significant growth in the vast majority of OECD countries. China was the major FDI recipient worldwide, followed by the United States

About two-thirds of developing countries are now economically dependent on commodities, such as cacao, copper and oil. A country is considered to be commodity dependent when more than 60% of its total merchandise exports are composed of commodities. Given that commodity dependence can have a negative impact on a country’s economic development, it is important to monitor the evolution of such dependence in countries throughout the world. UNCTAD's State of Commodity Dependence

In the ongoing disruption of the global economy, Vietnam is emerging as a clear winner. Its economy is expected to grow by 4.8% of GDP in 2021, according to the World Bank. To be sure, the Covid-19 pandemic has hit Vietnam this summer, after the country was largely successful at curtailing the virus in 2020. That will hurt the country’s second half of 2021, but long-term trends still support Vietnam establishing itself as a major economic power. Crucial to its rise are powerf

TDM Insight: China Trade Statistics Show Supply Chain Disruption. By John W. Miller, Chief Economic Analyst - Trade Data Monitor The global economy is getting back to normal, but supply chains are not exactly returning to where they were before the Covid-19 pandemic. Consider this: In August, Chinese shipments of textiles fell 14.8% year-on-year, off a low base in 2020, to $12.5 billion, and exports of mobile phones declined 24.4% to $7.4 billion. However, sales of motor vehi

By John W. Miller, Chief Economic Analyst - Trade Data Monitor: China’s industrial sector is headed for a slowdown in the second half of 2021, according to an analysis by Trade Data Monitor, the world’s premier source of trade statistics. In July, overall exports increased 19.4%, to $282.7 billion, compared to the same month a year earlier, below analysts’ expectations. In June, they had increased 32.2% year-on-year. Imports in July rose 28.1% year-on-year, to $226.1 billion,

Official China Trade Data Analysis by John W. Miller, Chief Economic Analyst, Trade Data Monitor - May 2021 China Preliminary Data by Major Products & by Country/Region Asia is really humming. Chinese exports of goods to top Asian trading partners boomed in May, suggesting that the continent is blowing past Europe and the U.S. in 2021 in the speed and scale of its recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic. Chinese exports to the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Nations, o

The challenges of a big economy going green, as analyzed via trade statistics and illustrated via the case of China. Report by our partners Trade Data Monitor authored by Chief Economist, John Miller As the world emerges from the Covid-19 pandemic, China, the U.S., and other top economies are renewing their commitments to green energy. The world's nenewable energy capcaty increased by 45% in 2020, the largest increased in over 20 years, according to a recent report by the Int

New economic data from across the APEC region shows a softer economic contraction of 1.9 percent in 2020, with continued fiscal measures leading to a rise in government consumption and improved investment and household consumption. According to the latest APEC Regional Trends Analysis, household consumption, APEC’s main driver of growth, improved to -3.9 percent in the second half of 2020 on a year-on-year basis, as compared to -7.0 percent in the first half of last year. Inv