Much has been written about Indonesia’s 2022 successes- record inbound FDI and the highest GDP growth in ten years, driven by booming commodity prices (thermal coal, palm oil, and nickel) and a rebound in household consumption following the lifting of COVID-19.
While 2023 and 2024 GPD is expected to slow, by 2030 Indonesia, which is already Southeast Asia’s largest economy, is on track to become the world’s 7th-largest economy, overtaking Germany and the United Kingdom. We focus this complimentary analysis on specific areas of Indonesia’s current and near-term growth.
Mapping US$50+ billion in 2022-2023 inbound investment
From East Asia, GCC, and G7, focused on infrastructure, renewable energy, NEVs, and semiconductors;
We use the 2022 version of the Google, Temasek, and Bain study as a base to track inbound 2022 VC investments which showed continued strong activity in fintech and e-commerce,
Near-term projects such as the Jakarta-Bandung HSR (2023 launch) and Trans-Java Toll road (completion 2024),
Globally, 2022 IPO markets were well below 2021 levels. That said, Indonesia’s IDX was up 4%, while the USA, China, and Japan showed sharp declines. There were similar declines in IPOs. Indonesia led ASEAN in volume; however, several of the early 2022 IPOs encountered significant headwinds later in the year,
In 2021, Indonesia’s renewable energy mix was 13.83%; hydropower 7.9%, geothermal 5.6%, and other forms 0.33%. Indonesia must reach 23% by 2025 to reach its climate objective. We discuss 2022 hydropower projects launched with Japan and China to help attain these goals.
We also track the 2022 progress of two major Indonesian projects which are innovative, and thus more challenging to fund in today’s markets; INA – a different sort of Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF), and Nusantara – a new capital city which we see as hugely aspirational.