While the findings are hardly a revelation it is interesting to see the patterns and have a view on next steps. Interesting pointers on prospects for the forthcoming months.
Key points:
China mainland is the only top economy showing signs of recovery in Q2 2020 both in exports and imports
Overall, the Q2 of 2020 is the worst quarter in global trade on record
Year-on-year changes in exports in May 2020 were negative for all reporting states including China (-3.3%), Brazil (-14.2%), South Korea (-23.7%), Japan (-26.0%), Russia (-34.8%), United States (-36.3%), UK (-36.6%), EU external trade (-37.7%) and Canada (-41.0%)
Several countries have already reported trade data for June 2020, Brazilian exports went down by 2.7% year-on-year, the situation is much worse for South Korea (-10.9%) and Japan (-26.1%), Chinese exports went up year-on-year but only by 0.3% which is, however, a clear improvement on the preceding months, taking the whole Q2 2020 Chinese exports are above by 0.1% over the result
PMI new export orders for manufacturing is above 50.0 points for the US and the EU excluding the UK providing some optimism for Q3
For the latest official monthly trade statistics of 110 countries in an interactive market analysis tool based on monthly HS Customs data feel free to connect with jackp@kwconfex.com
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