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IHS Markit: The worst quarter in trade on record

While the findings are hardly a revelation it is interesting to see the patterns and have a view on next steps. Interesting pointers on prospects for the forthcoming months.


Key points:

  • China mainland is the only top economy showing signs of recovery in Q2 2020 both in exports and imports

  • Overall, the Q2 of 2020 is the worst quarter in global trade on record

  • Year-on-year changes in exports in May 2020 were negative for all reporting states including China (-3.3%), Brazil (-14.2%), South Korea (-23.7%), Japan (-26.0%), Russia (-34.8%), United States (-36.3%), UK (-36.6%), EU external trade (-37.7%) and Canada (-41.0%)

  • Several countries have already reported trade data for June 2020, Brazilian exports went down by 2.7% year-on-year, the situation is much worse for South Korea (-10.9%) and Japan (-26.1%), Chinese exports went up year-on-year but only by 0.3% which is, however, a clear improvement on the preceding months, taking the whole Q2 2020 Chinese exports are above by 0.1% over the result

  • PMI new export orders for manufacturing is above 50.0 points for the US and the EU excluding the UK providing some optimism for Q3

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For the latest official monthly trade statistics of 110 countries in an interactive market analysis tool based on monthly HS Customs data feel free to connect with jackp@kwconfex.com

Trade Data Monitor is the official provider of WTO, FAO, WIPO, the US Dept Agriculture (USDA), French Ministry of Agriculture, ICE, European Central Bank, Glencore and more.

Our market analysis tool provides monthly updates on the following:

· Import and Export data by reporters, partners, HS codes, in value/quantity and unit price;

· Re-exports, trade regimes, information about ports and exact shipping location;

· A system to track special tariff actions and identify their effects;

· The possibility of creating groups of products, countries, EU27 (Brexit), etc...

jackp@kwconfex.com


#trade #tradedata #tradestatistics #globaltrade #gdp #economy #recovery

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